Originally published on German radio DW-
A few months ago, the Prime Minister of Montenegro said that “two neighboring countries are trying to block his country’s accession to the EU.” Which countries did Spajić mean, and what do experts say?
In August of this year, Montenegrin Prime Minister Milojko Spajić, whose government is leading the country’s accession process to the European Union, made a statement that revived the region’s old debates. Spajić, head of government of a small state in the Western Balkans, which is considered the “frontrunner” toward the EU, warned that “two states neighboring Montenegro aim to block the path of accession through hybrid attacks”.
“Montenegrin authorities have serious operational data according to which the closing of new chapters in negotiations with the EU is expected to be accompanied by hybrid attacks, in which officials of at least two states in the region are suspected of being involved” – Spajić wrote on the platform X in the last days of August.
He did not name specific countries, but local media claimed the prime minister meant Serbia and Albania, the latter also being a more advanced state than its neighbors in the “race” toward the EU, following Montenegro.
Albania, a risk for Montenegro?
“No, I do not see Albania as a risk to Montenegro’s European integration” – says Johann Sattler, former Austrian ambassador in Tirana and currently the European Union’s ambassador in Podgorica. Responding to Deutsche Welle regarding Prime Minister Spajić’s statement, the head of the EU delegation excludes Albania from these claims.
“No, I do not see Albania as a risk to Montenegro’s European integration” – says Johann Sattler, former Austrian ambassador in Tirana and currently the European Union’s ambassador in Podgorica.Photo: European Commission
“Many speculations were made, because two states were mentioned. Everyone guessed the first one, Serbia, while the second was never officially revealed. Albania or Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina were rumored. This does not exclude the existence of cross-border criminal groups with Albanian participation; this is a matter of the fight against organized crime. But Albania as a state poses no political risk at all. The two countries have very good relations, help each other, and are currently at the forefront of the accession process.”
“Attacks by neighbors, for internal political interests”
Jovan Subotić, political ally of Milojko Spajić and member of the Montenegrin Parliament, acknowledges that hybrid attacks are making Montenegro’s path to the European Union more difficult. Aligned with Spajić, he emphasized, however, that “the attacks do not play a significant role, because citizens’ support for EU accession has remained unshaken”.
“When it comes to these hybrid threats, we note that new media are targeting Montenegro’s path to the EU, since some neighboring countries want to be the first to join, or at least to be in the same group as Montenegro. I try not to speak about states as a whole, but about the current regimes, which take these actions for internal political gains, and not to oppose Montenegro as the country leading the process” – Subotić told DW.
Asked about the accusations against Albania, Subotić chooses a completely diplomatic language. “I have no idea. The prime minister has his resources and services at his disposal, which are responsible for informing only him”.
Milica Kovačević heads the Center for Democratic Transition in Podgorica. She links such statements by politicians to the election campaign in Montenegro. “Political leaders often make dramatic statements, often through social networks, without offering supporting information or concrete evidence. This makes it difficult to genuinely assess such claims” – she told DW.
“Foreign interference is undoubtedly a legitimate concern, but claims involving specific countries require a factual basis and should not be treated as proven facts without further evidence. Therefore, I would be cautious in interpreting the prime minister’s statement about interference from any specific neighboring country, especially when he has not publicly identified those countries and has not explained the nature of the alleged threats”.
Serbia, Russia’s “hand” in Montenegro?
At the beginning of October, Montenegrin authorities arrested five Russian citizens, one of whom was a pro-Kremlin military blogger and founder of the “Rybar” network, Mikhail Zvinchuk. He was arrested together with his wife and three others, on charges of threatening the country’s national security. After deportation, they first traveled to Serbia, and then to Russia.
Referring to this event, the EU ambassador in Podgorica, Sattler, said that “a high level of vigilance must be shown when it comes to interference from abroad”. “Interference is happening in all our countries, in all European countries, and of course, it is also happening here in the Balkans, where systems are weaker and where entry points are sometimes easier. What we have noticed is that actors who do not want Montenegro’s accession and who do not want the European Union to achieve success have begun to increase over the past month”.
Expert Kovačević, whose daily work also focuses on media monitoring, sees as a threat, especially on the eve of the upcoming elections, efforts “to undermine public trust in democratic institutions and electoral processes, to incite ethnic and religious tensions, to deepen political polarization and to manipulate public debate through disinformation and divisive narratives”.
Many media platforms in Montenegro are owned and financed by Serbian businesses, through Montenegrin opposition parties. “These threats do not come exclusively from outside. Local political actors often contribute to this dynamic. The combination of external interference and local political interests poses a serious challenge to the democratic stability of Montenegro, especially during elections and at this critical stage of integration into the EU” – says Kovačević.
Because of its past, Serbian influence in Montenegro has been and continues to remain strong, according to analysts. The country has often been regarded as Russia’s and Serbia’s “Trojan Horse” in the European Union. Filip Ivanović, Montenegro’s deputy prime minister for foreign and European affairs, categorically denies this accusation.
“The metaphor that Montenegro is supposedly a ‘Trojan Horse’ is a shameful absurdity. It is fabricated mainly by internal opposition circles to tarnish the government’s image abroad. Show me even one fact where Montenegro has acted contrary to the values or policies of the EU. We have 100% alignment with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy, we have implemented all sanctions against Russia, and we are strengthening the rule of law. Claims of a ‘Trojan Horse’ are pure fabrication” – he said during a meeting with European journalists covering EU enlargement issues in Podgorica last week./DW/