In a few years, the EU’s external borders could become Kosovo’s borders with Albania and Montenegro.
This prospect is becoming more concrete, as both countries are advancing in the accession process, while Kosovo is lagging on the path toward European integration.
Montenegro has temporarily closed 23 of the 33 negotiating chapters, and the European Commission assesses that it could close all of them by the end of 2026. Albania, meanwhile, has closed 4 of the 33 chapters and has opened the last chapter group. It aims to complete negotiations by the end of 2027.
On the other hand, Kosovo applied for EU membership on 15 December 2022 and is still waiting to receive candidate country status.
The European Commission’s latest report highlights stagnation of reforms in Kosovo in the context of a prolonged institutional crisis. This crisis was characterized by difficulties in constituting the Assembly and forming institutions, while within a period of about one year the country held three rounds of parliamentary elections.
Experts on European integration, the economy and security assess that Kosovo should prepare for the eventual membership of Montenegro and Albania in the EU.
According to them, these developments could affect the movement of people and goods, create new conditions for Kosovo businesses and change regional cooperation in the field of security.
The gap with neighbours in integration and security
The progress of Albania and Montenegro toward EU membership could deepen Kosovo’s political distance from its neighbours, but also create differences in regional cooperation in the field of security.
Tefta Kelmendi, a researcher at the Jacques Delors European institute, assesses that Kosovo has already fallen behind neighbouring countries as a result of the political crisis and the lack of progress in the dialogue with Serbia.
“Considering the progress of neighbouring states over the past four years and, compared with them, Kosovo’s stagnation as a result of the political crisis in the country and the lack of advancement in the dialogue with Serbia, which has affected both the European integration process and diplomatic relations with EU institutions and member states, a considerable distance has been created that will be difficult to overcome in the near future,” Kelmendi tells Radio Free Europe.
According to her, if Montenegro and Albania join the EU within four years, Kosovo could face greater domestic pressure to accelerate European integration.
This development, however, as Kelmendi assesses, could also have a positive impact, by restoring citizens’ and political representatives’ confidence in the European perspective.
According to her, Pristina should engage in accelerating internal reforms, especially in the rule of law and diplomacy, as well as in overcoming political obstacles on its EU integration path.
“A smart strategic approach would be for Kosovo to engage as soon as possible and intensively in removing the political obstacles to its advancement in the integration process, including the issue of non-recognition by five EU member states, which would enable the unblocking of its candidacy in the Council of Europe,” Kelmendi tells REL.
According to Kelmendi, Kosovo should intensify diplomatic engagement with EU institutions and member states to unblock its candidacy. In parallel, it should push forward reforms that would enable its integration into the EU common market.
The gap with its neighbors is not limited only to the political integration process.
Jeta Loshaj, from the Kosovar Center for Security Studies (KCSS), assesses that the gap with neighbors could deepen also in the field of security, where Kosovo already has a more unfavorable position relative to access to European cooperation mechanisms.
Currently, Kosovo is the only country in the region without an operational agreement with Europol. The current working arrangement, from 2020, does not allow the exchange of personal data, although practical cooperation has increased.
“Once the neighbors are inside the EU, this asymmetry will deepen,” Loshaj tells REL.
According to her, the inequality with neighboring countries inside the EU could create difficulties for Kosovo in fighting organized crime and other cross-border threats.
She says criminal groups treat the region as a single space and exploit countries where controls and information exchange are weaker.
“If our neighbors are fully integrated (into the EU) and Kosovo is not, a gray zone could be created that is exploited for trafficking, smuggling and irregular migration,” Loshaj says.
Also, according to her, the eventual membership of Montenegro and Albania in the EU will bring the bloc’s rules and standards in border management, stricter controls and greater involvement of the European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex).
Kelmendi adds that the eventual membership of Montenegro and Albania in the EU will be felt in relation to Kosovo in the additional requirements the bloc has for the free movement of citizens.
“To cross the border and access personal property or visit family members in these two states, Kosovo citizens would have to travel with a valid passport, pay special insurance for vehicles entering the EU and face restrictions on the length of stay,” Kelmendi emphasizes.
This will particularly affect how citizens of Kosovo and those of Albania and Montenegro will cross into each other’s territory. Currently, this is made possible with biometric ID cards.
Loshaj clarifies that existing regional agreements on movement with ID cards are not automatically extinguished by Albania and Montenegro’s EU membership. According to her, the greatest impact on people’s movement would be felt if these two countries also entered the Schengen area, since this does not happen simultaneously with EU membership and usually requires several years.
Then, according to her, some practical questions remain.
“What will happen with the common border points and how long will waits last in summer? Visa liberalization has greatly eased this risk, but Kosovo must address these issues now, so that the border does not become an obstacle for people,” says Loshaj.
From CEFTA to the EU market: challenges for Kosovo exporters
If Albania and Montenegro join the European Union before Kosovo, their trade relations with Kosovo will develop within a new framework of rules.
Gazmend Qorraj, professor of economics at the University of Prishtina, assesses that this change would bring a structural transformation in trade relations between these countries.
“In practice, with EU accession, Albania and Montenegro will be obliged to apply the EU’s Common Trade Policy and will automatically withdraw from the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA),” Qorraj tells REL.
According to him, trade with Kosovo would be based on the Stabilization-Association Agreement (SAA), which Kosovo has had in force since 2016.
Qorraj assesses that one of the main challenges for Kosovo exporters will be non-tariff barriers related to European market standards and requirements.
“Exporters who already have trade experience with EU countries will find it easier to adapt, while for those who do not have this experience, this transition will be a new challenge, due to the stricter requirements and regulations of the EU market compared with the regional market of the Western Balkans,” he tells REL.
Adapting to EU market requirements would be particularly difficult for small and medium-sized businesses, assesses Lulzim Rafuna, head of the Chamber of Commerce of Kosovo.
“Although a small number of large exporting companies (especially in the wood processing, plastics and IT sectors) have managed to become certified for the EU market, the vast majority of small and medium-sized enterprises do not have the financial and technical capacity to make this transition within a short time,” he tells REL.
Rafuna warns that if Albania and Montenegro join the EU, Kosovo exporters will face strict phytosanitary and veterinary requirements, as well as EU quality standards. According to him, the lack of information and limited laboratory capacities in Kosovo for product testing could make it harder for businesses to meet these requirements and weaken their competitiveness in both markets.
“Among the most exposed sectors are agribusiness and food processing, manufacturers of construction materials, as well as the transport and logistics sector,” says Rafuna.
Rafuna adds that additional customs controls and procedures at the border could cause delays and increase costs for Kosovo transporters.
How should Kosovo prepare?
Radio Free Europe asked the Government of Kosovo for its position regarding the possible political, economic and security consequences of the possible accession of Albania and Montenegro to the EU, including the impact on citizens’ movement, cross-border cooperation and trade relations.
RFE/RL also asked what concrete measures the Government is planning to protect Kosovo’s interests and advance the country’s European integration. As of the publication of this article, the Government had not responded to the questions.
All those interviewed by RFE/RL, from different perspectives, emphasize the need for Kosovo to prepare for the changes that the accession of Albania and Montenegro to the EU could bring.
They call for greater engagement by institutions, agreements with the two neighboring countries and measures to help Kosovo businesses adapt to the new requirements.
Kelmendi says that to recover the time lost due to the political crisis and problems in the dialogue with Serbia, Kosovo must accelerate efforts to unblock its EU membership candidacy.
Meanwhile, to advance the domestic reforms that would enable its integration into the European single market, according to her, Kosovo can use EU financial support.
“The EU has already created the framework to help candidate countries advance in this direction, through the Growth and Reform Plan and the financial instruments that support it. Now it remains for the Government of Kosovo to engage politically in this process and place it on the list of top priorities,” Kelmendi tells RFE/RL.
In the field of security, Loshaj assesses that Pristina should negotiate bilateral agreements on security and border control with Tirana and Podgorica before their accession.
“These agreements should include joint patrols, joint contact centers, joint border points and information exchange. They should be drafted according to EU standards, so that they remain valid even after accession,” Loshaj tells RFE/RL.
According to her, Kosovo can deepen cooperation with Europol in combating crime, with Frontex in border management and with Eurojust in judicial cooperation in criminal matters, without touching the issue of its status.
Loshaj adds that Kosovo should strengthen data protection, the integrity of border controls and the capacities of the Kosovo Police. According to her, concrete results in these areas would demonstrate Kosovo’s readiness to cooperate and would help it seek gradual inclusion in EU security operations.
For preparing businesses, Qorraj calls for prior engagement by public institutions and business associations.
“Public institutions and business associations should prepare local businesses in advance through information and training focused on EU standards,” Qorraj says.
In addition to information and training, Qorraj considers that institutions and business associations should pay special attention to exporters who have no experience with the EU market, so that they are prepared for the stricter requirements and regulations of this market.
Rafuna considers that the Government of Kosovo should take concrete measures, including subsidizing product certification and standardization, investments in local laboratories, and negotiating special trade protocols with Albania and Montenegro.
“Work should be done toward a transitional agreement with Albania and Montenegro: the Government should negotiate now special trade protocols or transitional ‘green corridors’ for the period after their accession, in order to facilitate customs procedures for products originating from Kosovo,” Rafuna emphasizes.
He also suggests that the Government create a fund that would cover up to 70 percent of product certification costs. According to Rafuna, financial support would help businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, meet the standards required for the European market./RFE/RL/