European NATO members are weighing possible scenarios ahead of the US midterm elections, concerned that a Republican defeat could lead to a harder line from President Donald Trump toward the alliance. According to Politico, which cites five NATO diplomats speaking on condition of anonymity, there is fear in European capitals that Trump could respond by increasing pressure on allies if Democrats manage to take control of Congress.
Diplomats fear that limits Congress may impose on domestic policy could push the US president to focus more on foreign policy, where his powers as commander in chief are broader. One scenario under consideration is a further reduction of the American military presence on the European continent. Three diplomats expressed concern that Washington could withdraw thousands of additional troops from Europe.
A senior European defense official assessed that presidents, especially in the final phase of their term, may combine political frustrations with unpredictable decisions in foreign policy. According to him, criticism of NATO is a constant feature of Trump’s political stance. For its part, the White House has dismissed concerns about the president’s commitment to the alliance. Deputy press secretary Olivia Wales told Politico that Trump has done more for NATO than any other president.
She highlighted agreements to raise member states’ defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, strengthening the American military presence in Greenland, and efforts to end Russia’s war against Ukraine. However, the US administration acknowledged that Trump remains dissatisfied with the stance of some NATO allies during the conflict in Iran. The White House stressed that the president will continue to defend American interests, both at home and on the international stage.
Tuesday’s elections are considered an important political test for Trump. Democrats are seen as favorites to win a majority in the House of Representatives, while the race for control of the Senate also remains in focus. Such a result could shift the political balance in Washington and add uncertainty about the future of relations between the United States and its European allies.