Modern conflicts are no longer fought only on the battlefield. Increasingly, they extend into the digital space and into the infrastructure that keeps daily life running. This includes cyberattacks on businesses, sabotage of technology systems, false bomb alerts on aircraft, and interference with supply networks.
These are some of the forms of hybrid warfare. Their consequences translate into considerable economic losses for Italy and other European countries. Assessing the damage is difficult.
No single indicator can calculate the cost of a false bomb alert, a cyberattack on a company, or sabotage of the refrigeration systems in a supermarket. Expenses include security interventions, interruption of activity, loss of goods, delays and other damage that emerges later.
“There is no single average cost that can be attributed to a bomb alert or to the diversion of a flight as a result of it,” explains Luca Mantecchini, professor of Transport Engineering at the University of Bologna, to the Italian newspaper Quotidiano Nazionale. False bomb alerts, costs that extend beyond a single flight One of the cases that illustrates the consequences of hybrid warfare is false bomb alerts in air transport.
Even an anonymous notice can activate emergency protocols. It can mobilise police forces and anti-explosive experts, change aircraft itineraries and, in certain cases, even require the intervention of fighter jets. According to calculations based on Eurocontrol parameters, one minute of delay can cost between 160 and 2,000 euros per flight.
These also include the knock-on effects that delays create on other air connections. The cost is not limited to the time lost. If an aircraft is forced to land at an alternate airport, the airline must arrange refuelling and its return to the planned itinerary.
Likewise, flights must be reorganised and assistance provided to affected passengers. The consequences can also spread to airports and airlines not directly involved in the emergency. Another expense is military intervention.
According to estimates cited in the article, one flying hour of the Eurofighter fighter jet of the Italian Air Force costs on average around 75,000 euros. Supermarkets, a target of sabotage through refrigeration systems Hybrid attacks can also affect sectors that at first sight have no connection to military conflicts, such as supermarkets.
One method of sabotage is remote interference with the systems that control the temperature of refrigerators and freezers. Changing storage parameters can cause large quantities of food products to spoil. This forces shops to withdraw and destroy the damaged goods.
In Italy, according to data made public by the Prime Minister’s Office, the consequences of such an episode remained limited to a small number of points of sale. In France, meanwhile, an attack that occurred in October is suspected to have affected hundreds of shops. Thierry Cotillard, president of the Intermarché group, has warned of losses of tens of millions of euros.
Another difficulty relates to insurance. Not all policies covering cyber risks include the material damage a cyberattack may cause, such as the destruction of food or other goods. Cyberattacks are increasing pressure on businesses One of the main fronts of hybrid warfare remains the digital space.
A cyberattack can halt production, interrupt important services, compromise a company’s data and create large expenses for restoring systems to operation. The scale of the problem is also shown by a study by the Bank of Italy, titled “Cyber risk of non-financial companies,” which analysed around 4,000 companies.
According to the study’s data, documented attacks in the sample examined have increased significantly: from 14 cases in 2019 to 232 in 2023. The report notes that after a cyber incident, companies need time to restore appropriate security measures. Meanwhile, their exposure to threats increases immediately.
For this reason, the researchers suggest that cyber risk should also be taken into account by banks when assessing the financial sustainability of businesses. Banks too depend on a limited number of technology providers Risk is not confined to industrial and commercial companies.
The financial sector too is dependent on digital infrastructure and services provided by external companies. According to Bank of Italy data, financial institutions under its supervision have around 100,000 contracts with IT service providers, with an annual expenditure of 2.4 billion euros.
A particular concern is market concentration: around 40% of the total value of these services is linked to just five companies. This means that the compromise of one of these providers’ systems could cause consequences for many financial institutions at the same time. ## 468 million dollars in losses from cyber incidents in Italy Some data give a more concrete idea of the financial scale of the phenomenon.
According to an assessment published by Hackmanac, a platform specialising in monitoring cyber threats, 407 incidents were recorded in Italy during the first half of 2026. These are linked to losses of around 468.18 million dollars. Meanwhile, the IBM report for Italy estimates that the average cost of a data breach for the organisations analysed reaches 3.55 million euros.
In the energy sector, this figure rises to 4.65 million euros. In parallel, the cybersecurity market is also expanding. The Polytechnic University of Milan estimated it at 2.78 billion euros for 2025, a 12% increase compared with a year earlier.
According to the same estimate, 34% of large companies have faced considerable expenses to restore systems after an attack. ## Italy plans over 1.2 billion euros for digital security Faced with the growing number of these threats, Italian institutions are investing in strengthening the protection of networks and data.
On 15 October, Consip announced three initiatives with a total value of over 1.2 billion euros, aimed at the security of the digital infrastructure of public administration. Of this amount, 826 million euros are earmarked for remote security services, 317 million euros for protection systems and 112 million euros for IT infrastructure management.
Supervisory institutions are also targets of intrusion attempts. In its report for 2024, Consob, the Italian financial markets authority, recorded more than 2.5 million attack attempts on its systems. It also reported repeated attacks by pro-Russian actors.
However, the institution said its protection mechanisms had prevented significant consequences. The figure includes attempts of various kinds and does not represent the number of successful intrusions. The cost of fear and uncertainty in the economy Beyond direct material damage, hybrid warfare creates a less visible cost: uncertainty.
Threats do not necessarily aim to destroy infrastructure or cause casualties. They can affect the trust of citizens and businesses, changing the way they consume, invest and plan for the future. This mechanism is analysed in a study published in March by economists Norbert Metiu and Martin Völpel of the Bundesbank, titled “Geopolitical Hybrid Threats.”
The researchers examined more than 12 million published newspaper articles dating back to 1985, in order to build an indicator that measures the spread of hybrid threats. According to the study’s economic simulations, an increase